New Hampshire

Conference:	AE
Expected RPI:	312.0
Current RPI:	312
Expected SOS:	256
Current SOS:	256
Current Record:	8-21
Expected Record:	8-21
Current Conf Record:	6-11
Expected Conf Record:	6-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-10
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-6
Current OOC Record:	2-10
Expected OOC Record:	2-10
Expected OOC RPI:	344
Expected OOC SOS:	303

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-21	312.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for New Hampshire.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-14	Texas (51.0)	B12	A	78-60	L	0%
11-19	Florida (46.0)	SEC	A	70-63	L	0%
11-21	American (336.0)	Pat	H	70-74	L	0%
11-24	Furman (97.0)	SC	N	64-78	L	0%
11-25	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	N	63-77	L	0%
11-29	Boston University (212.0)	Pat	H	69-70	L	0%
12-2	Bryant (341.0)	NEC	H	75-59	W	100%
12-5	Niagara (163.0)	MAAC	H	70-78	L	0%
12-9	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	A	62-58	L	0%
12-20	George Washington (195.0)	A10	A	68-64	L	0%
12-22	Fairfield (180.0)	MAAC	A	78-68	L	0%
12-30	Dartmouth (334.0)	Ivy	H	83-66	W	100%
1-3	UMBC (111.0)	AE	A	71-67	L	0%
1-6	Albany (142.0)	AE	H	64-61	W	100%
1-10	Binghamton (320.0)	AE	H	71-67	W	100%
1-15	UMass Lowell (289.0)	AE	A	62-74	W	100%
1-18	Vermont (60.0)	AE	H	56-67	L	0%
1-21	Stony Brook (208.0)	AE	H	53-51	W	100%
1-24	Maine (338.0)	AE	A	69-68	L	0%
1-27	Binghamton (320.0)	AE	A	52-57	W	100%
1-31	Hartford (198.0)	AE	H	62-79	L	0%
2-3	Albany (142.0)	AE	A	83-74	L	0%
2-8	Maine (338.0)	AE	H	71-56	W	100%
2-11	UMBC (111.0)	AE	H	59-68	L	0%
2-15	Vermont (60.0)	AE	A	71-58	L	0%
2-18	Stony Brook (208.0)	AE	A	72-63	L	0%
2-21	Hartford (198.0)	AE	A	65-56	L	0%
2-27	UMass Lowell (289.0)	AE	H	77-92	L	0%
3-3	Hartford (198.0)	AE	A	71-60	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

New Hampshire's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

New Hampshire's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against New Hampshire.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
New Hampshire	AE	26.37	26.37	25.20	25.20	-13.08	-13.08
Hartford	AE	6.05	6.05	53.57	53.57	0.43	0.43
Vermont	AE	4.50	4.50	77.42	77.42	2.47	2.47
UMBC	AE	4.49	4.49	65.52	65.52	1.39	1.39
Albany	AE	4.47	4.47	68.97	68.97	1.69	1.69
Maine	AE	4.41	4.41	10.71	10.71	-3.46	-3.46
Stony Brook	AE	4.40	4.40	37.93	37.93	-1.06	-1.06
UMass Lowell	AE	4.37	4.37	37.04	37.04	-1.13	-1.13
Binghamton	AE	4.29	4.29	33.33	33.33	-1.43	-1.43
Boston University	Pat	2.01	2.01	44.83	44.83	-0.21	-0.21
Dartmouth	Ivy	1.92	1.92	24.00	24.00	-1.00	-1.00
Bryant	NEC	1.90	1.90	10.00	10.00	-1.52	-1.52
Holy Cross	Pat	1.89	1.89	36.67	36.67	-0.51	-0.51
American	Pat	1.84	1.84	17.24	17.24	-1.20	-1.20
Fairfield	MAAC	1.80	1.80	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Niagara	MAAC	1.80	1.80	58.06	58.06	0.29	0.29
Florida	SEC	1.72	1.72	61.29	61.29	0.39	0.39
Furman	SC	1.72	1.72	66.67	66.67	0.57	0.57
George Washington	A10	1.72	1.72	43.75	43.75	-0.22	-0.22
Texas	B12	1.72	1.72	56.25	56.25	0.22	0.22
Utah St.	MWC	1.72	1.72	46.88	46.88	-0.11	-0.11
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.42	0.42	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.38	0.38	30.00	30.00	-0.15	-0.15
Colgate	Pat	0.37	0.37	58.06	58.06	0.06	0.06
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.36	0.36	36.36	36.36	-0.10	-0.10
Loyola MD	Pat	0.35	0.35	26.67	26.67	-0.16	-0.16
Army	Pat	0.31	0.31	41.38	41.38	-0.05	-0.05
Bucknell	Pat	0.31	0.31	73.53	73.53	0.14	0.14
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.26	0.26	43.75	43.75	-0.03	-0.03
Wagner	NEC	0.25	0.25	70.00	70.00	0.10	0.10
Siena	MAAC	0.24	0.24	25.00	25.00	-0.12	-0.12
Columbia	Ivy	0.24	0.24	26.92	26.92	-0.11	-0.11
Navy	Pat	0.23	0.23	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
Iona	MAAC	0.22	0.22	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
Cornell	Ivy	0.21	0.21	40.74	40.74	-0.04	-0.04
Brown	Ivy	0.21	0.21	38.46	38.46	-0.05	-0.05
Yale	Ivy	0.20	0.20	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.20	0.20	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Lafayette	Pat	0.20	0.20	30.00	30.00	-0.08	-0.08
Lehigh	Pat	0.20	0.20	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.20	0.20	39.39	39.39	-0.04	-0.04
Marist	MAAC	0.19	0.19	19.35	19.35	-0.12	-0.12
Rider	MAAC	0.19	0.19	70.97	70.97	0.08	0.08
Boston College	ACC	0.17	0.17	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Canisius	MAAC	0.17	0.17	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.17	0.17	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	B10	0.17	0.17	42.42	42.42	-0.03	-0.03
Monmouth	MAAC	0.16	0.16	35.48	35.48	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Tech	B12	0.14	0.14	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Northeastern	CAA	0.13	0.13	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Manhattan	MAAC	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	6.67	6.67	-0.10	-0.10
George Mason	A10	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	B10	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Fordham	A10	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Kentucky	SEC	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Penn	Ivy	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
Princeton	Ivy	0.09	0.09	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.09	0.09	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	Amer	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
VMI	SC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
FIU	CUSA	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Western Carolina	SC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
VCU	A10	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
Evansville	MVC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
NJIT	ASun	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	CAA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Chicago St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Mercer	SC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Samford	SC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
SMU	Amer	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Wofford	SC	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Butler	BE	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
BYU	WCC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fresno St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Nevada	MWC	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Jose St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	10.34	10.34	-0.04	-0.04
TCU	B12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UNLV	MWC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
LSU	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02